The best day of the rugby league year is here
"In life, in death, O Lord, Abide with Me"
They’ll tell you it’s Grand Final Day in Sydney.
They’ll tell you the first Origin is Rugby League Christmas.
They’re wrong.
The Challenge Cup Final, the 125th edition of which will be played this Saturday afternoon at Wembley Stadium in London, is the greatest day on the rugby league calendar.
It’s truly the best of us as a sport.
Parochial yet outward-looking. Obnoxious but welcoming. Nostalgic but current.
They’ll also tell you that it’s not as good as it used to be, but then again, when is nostalgia?
British rugby league cannot but question every property it owns.
It took the NRL nicking Magic Round for everyone in the UK to stop publishing ‘whither Magic Round?’ thinkpieces, even though it was always a good idea.
Now that one is settled, we’ve gone back to lamenting the worth of Wembley, as if it wasn’t the most important thing we do each year that is purely us, for us, because we are us.
The Grand Final has surpassed it in importance, but that’s fine. That’s rugby league’s culmination, and all the better for it, because you get the best of the best with all their fans.
Magic Round has surpassed it as the festival, and that’s fine too. That’s rugby league’s celebration of itself. Sure, outsiders can come, but we’re not explaining anything either.
The Cup Final remains the big day out, the occasion with the most tradition, pomp, ceremony and the rest.
It’s when we get to tell the world that this is who we are, what we’re like and what we can offer. The bluster is the point.
In an era where attention is atomised and nothing means anything, this means something.
You do it at Wembley and do it properly - without that, it’s just another event that isn’t as good as the other two anymore.
It’s Abide With Me, the Lance Todd Trophy, the statue on Wembley Way and the suits with the flowers in lapels.
It’s Don Fox, the poor lad, Brett Kenny’s hands in his pockets and Martin Offiah on his knees.
It’s me, my brother and my father in tears as Hull turned the song on its head. Nobody ever cried about a rugby league game at Spurs, let me tell you. That’s Wembley.
It’s five thousand treizeistes, celebrating the culmination of a hundred years of oppression and defiance as their boys picked up the cup. There’s a Bar Le Wembley in Perpignan, too.
It’s the Bree Louise, the Doric Arch and the Euston Tap, packed with punters fresh off the train, and the bookies in the station with the Lance Todd odds on the board outside.
When you’re thinking whether the cup matters anymore, whether it should be at Wembley and whether it’s lost its lustre, remember those things.
Sport is about memories and Wembley drips with them.
Yep, the crowds aren’t what they were. Yep, the new ground is much worse than the old one. Yep, the early rounds are a bit rubbish sometimes.
But when the sun shines on Wembley Way and the camera cuts to the crowd, remember this is our day.
Don’t let a business plan get in the way. Keep it exactly as it is.
And remember – if you tell people something’s crap, they’ll think it is. So remember how good the Challenge Cup Final is. You’ll miss it if it’s gone.
Dry yer eyes mate - what about this year?
This is a real platonic ideal of a cup final, the best two teams and nothing between them.
Wigan are the biggest name in rugby league and intrinsically linked with Wembley.
Rovers are the superior team in the moment, reigning champions in every competition, including this one.
Both have had their ups and downs en route to Wembley, but enter in decent nick – no, I’m not counting last week’s farce – with the premier coaches in the UK game and, in Mikey Lewis and Jai Field, probably the two most exciting players.
Despite the 500 words of pure sepia above, I do like to refer to the model on this one, but it doesn’t really have a read on either team beyond that they’re both good.
With that in mind, I’ll take Wigan on the grounds that they’re outsiders in what is, for me, a toss-up.
Having the two best teams, evenly matched, in front of what is likely the biggest TV viewing audience of the year is exactly what the game needs.
My Mate Jeff
Our weekly tracker of who is improving and declining is fully explained here, but in short, we compare direct results year-on-year to follow progress independent of the draw – i.e Canberra beat Manly at Brookvale in 2026, a game they lost in 2025, so the Raiders gain a point and the Sea Eagles lose one.
Remember Jeff? He’s back, and not in pog form.
We’ve had a few weeks off, what with Origin, Magic and the like, so let’s check in.
The Panthers are the clear frontrunners now, as they are in everything, but Newcastle have now placed themselves in second spot on the improvers list.
The Roosters, ominously, are also hitting at much better than last year – which, as long-time readers will know, is something very much to be tracked, as they traditionally give themselves a lot to do at the backend.
Another interesting pullout is Manly, who are dead even with their 2025 selves, suggesting that Fozball – as I have suspected, perhaps with inherent fear as a Sea Eagles supporter – have benefited as much from a friendly fixture list as anything else.
Parra, who have had the opposite experience in practice, are also dead even, so they might just be facing tougher opponents right now.
The obvious failures are the Storm, Raiders and Dogs – who could only fall in this metric – but more worryingly, the Broncos and Sharks.
There’s not a nine point swing in the table, too, which speaks to how topsy-turvy the league has been. In the whole of 2025, it was 13 – and that’s at the end of the year.
GIGOT
This is our weekly punting section, based on the spitouts from my proprietary statistical model. Read all about it here if you want to know how it all works. I promise it’s interesting.
There’s only one game in the UK this weekend and we’ve already covered that – back Wigan, as outsiders, at the $2.15 price.
In the NRL, we can’t really make any judgements as we don’t know who is playing yet and the model hates Origin anyway.
That said, we didn’t get into this game not to make predictions, so here goes.
Queensland were the much better team in Origin 1 until the sending off, so $4 on them against any team picked by Laurie Daley is ludicrous. They might not win the series, but at that price, it’s worth a shy at the stumps.
The Sharks have flattered to deceive, but have had a week off and minimal Origin involvements – neither of their participants played big minutes – whereas Manly are missing two, with Tolu Koula in concussion protocols and Haumole Olakau’atu pulling up late for NSW.
$1.95 at the +1.5 line is an easy pick here in the Friday night match in the Shire – GIGOT loved this beforehand and would suggest that you pick a bigger line if possible, at least six points.
There’s a lot of chaos later in the week that I can’t judge without knowing who will actually take to the field.
Currently it loves the Panthers at +3.5, so if you get to Sunday and the big guns are playing, pile into that. I’ll see how the first two games go before doing anything.
This Substack is built almost entirely through word-of-mouth, so if you know someone who enjoys watery-eyed nostalgia about how footy used to be, or someone who went to a Challenge Cup Final in 2009 and loved it, send this to them.
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